TortSignal: How we predicted the Honda / Acura NHTSA investigation 6 months in advance

In May 2025, we discovered that Honda and Acura V6 engines faced a broad, under-recalled defect and that NHTSA would likely escalate to a wider probe covering about 1.4 million vehicles. 

On August 20 2025, NHTSA opened a preliminary evaluation into connecting rod bearing failures across those same lines.

We based this by analyzing the volume and velocity of complaints on NHTSA and identifying that it was growing at a rate that was above the benchmark baseline rate.

Our Analysis of complaints

Our analysis was based on looking at the velocity and volume of complaints over time, both from social media and the raw data in the NHTSA database.

We can observe in the chart above an increased level of complaints on a per 10k vehicles basis (i.e. this already takes into account the relative size of the vehicle fleet.

How we benchmarked this case

A simple signal stack that converts noisy owner reports and filings into a probability score for escalation. Based on the complaints data we obtained, we were able to perform two key types of analysis:

1. Qualitative Case Priors
   Prior engine and bearing defect matters in other OEMs show that persistent out-of-scope failures often lead to a wider ODI step. We applied those priors to calibrate timelines.
   
   
   

2. Quantitative Case Priors
   By examining the quantity and quality of complaints and benchmarking them against other existing complaints as well as successful lawsuits, our system was able to specifically flag the Honda / Acura engine issues.
   
   
   

How we benchmarked the seriousness of the case

VOQ Complaint Calculations to determine Relative Severity

Each complaint narrative is evaluated against four binary criteria; points are assigned as shown below and then summed (maximum = 5).

Score interpretation

• 0-1 = minor/no immediate safety consequence

• 2-3 = significant mechanical failure but no confirmed injury

• 4-5 = catastrophic event (high-risk circumstances or injury) - these are the complaints highlighted in Figure 2.

So a complaint describing an engine seizure that caused a highway crash with children on board would score 5 (2 + 1 + 1 + 1). One that reports a rod-through-block failure on a one-year-old truck but no crash or injury would score 3 (0 + 1 + 1 + 1; the child/elderly criterion isn’t met).

Severity 3: My vehicle stalled and had a horrible noise while stalling. Dealership took it back to their shop as we thought if was due to the work they just finished and after inspecting they determined a rod bearing had spun. The safety issue is we stalled out on the highway in the middle of traffic, almostI  got into several wrecks with my child in the vehicle. Only light that came on while stalling was the check engine light."  (Honda Pilot 2016)

• NHTSA VOQ 11562563. Source: https://api.nhtsa.gov/complaints/odinumber?odinumber=11562563 

How we valued this case at a potential 9-figure settlement

In our analysis, we were able to estimate that this would likely be a 9-figure settlement case, looking at historical data and estimating on the basis of the nature of reported repairs and reported out-of-pocket expenses.

Collaboration Opportunities

TortSignal is currently an internal tool developed in collaboration with a number of design partners.

At WhyHow.AI, we are reimagining what an AI-native plaintiff referral law firm would look like if we rebuilt it from the ground-up with data scientists and engineers. We build dedicated internal tools to help identify new mass tort cases, acquire and qualify plaintiffs, and provide real-time data pipelines and case inventory analytics between law firms, litigation funders and marketing vendors.

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